Business Owner Blues

Business Owner Blues: Unqualified Workers & Uncertain Economy

Business owner blues follows economic optimism, expressed last month, perhaps an aberration. In June, small biz owners turned pessimistic citing the continued difficulty of finding qualified workers, difficulty in planning inventories, and likelihood of interest rates rising, as significant factors. The impact of trade tariffs on consumer spending, starting this fall, has added even more…

Small Business Optimism

Real Economy Optimism Driven by U.S. Small Biz in Apr

The real economy optimism was driven higher by U.S. small business owners who cite strong job creation, expectations for sales, business conditions, and credit conditions as the underlying reasons. The latest data show small business owners have largely recovered from the impact of the “Trump Shutdown,” nasty winter weather nationwide, and interest rate concerns. According…

Consumer Confidence Yield Curve

Upside Down Yield Curve + Sideways Consumer Confidence = Recession Brewing

U.S. consumer confidence has been going sideways over the past two years. A February bounce, following the end of the Trump government shutdown, was short-lived as consumer confidence resumed its slow downward erosion in March. An upside down, or inverted, yield curve happens when short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates. Investors consider this…

Skewed Economic Data for 2019

Skewed Economic Data Produced Rocky Start for 2019 & the Rocky Road Ahead

As the fog clears it has become clear the Trump Shutdown messed up consumer economic statistics, far more than projected, producing skewed economic data. Lenders were particularly rattled when the latest figures revealed an uptick in auto loan defaults. First mortgage defaults also edged up, raising concerns among bankers. Credit card delinquency also moved upward…